Unraveling Iran's Power Structure: Who Truly Holds The Reins?

Meggie Padberg DVM 19 Jun 2025

When we talk about the governance of nations, the natural inclination is often to look towards the head of state, typically a president or prime minister, as the primary figure in charge. However, in the complex and often opaque political landscape of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the answer to "who is in control of Iran?" is far from straightforward. While a president does exist and holds significant public office, the true locus of power lies elsewhere, deeply embedded within a unique theocratic system established over four decades ago.

Understanding Iran's power dynamics requires a journey through its revolutionary history, its constitutional framework, and the intricate web of institutions that collectively shape its domestic and foreign policies. This article delves into the various layers of authority, from the Supreme Leader to the Revolutionary Guards, shedding light on the real decision-makers and the limitations placed on even the highest elected officials.

The Supreme Leader: Iran's Ultimate Authority
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: A Brief Profile
The President: A Limited Role
Masoud Pezeshkian: The Current Occupant and His Mandate
The Islamic Revolution and Its Legacy
The Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): A Parallel Power Structure
The IRGC's Influence on Regional Dynamics
Foreign Policy and Military Control: A Supreme Leader's Domain
The Pahlavi Dynasty and Exiled Opposition
The Theocratic Republic: A Unique Governance Model
The Constitutional Framework: Limiting Presidential Power
The Future of Control: Succession and Potential Shifts

The Supreme Leader: Iran's Ultimate Authority

At the very pinnacle of Iran's political hierarchy, holding ultimate and undisputed authority, is the Supreme Leader. This position, unique to Iran's theocratic system, embodies the concept that political authority springs from religious authority. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been a theocratic republic, and the Supreme Leader serves as the spiritual and political guide for the nation. The individual currently holding this immense power is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who, at 86 years old, has led Iran since the death in 1989 of its founding supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini.

Khomeini himself had led Iran for 10 years after successfully toppling the country's last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This historical context is crucial, as it established the precedent for the Supreme Leader's pervasive influence. Under Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader holds ultimate control over the armed forces, possesses the authority to declare war, and can appoint or remove top officials, including military commanders. This grants him a level of power that far exceeds that of any elected official, making him the definitive answer to the question of who is in control of Iran.

Beyond military and appointments, Ayatollah Khamenei also controls foreign and military policy, overseeing critical bodies such as the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which defends Iran’s Islamic system and sits apart from the rest of the military. This dual structure ensures that the Supreme Leader's will is executed even in the most sensitive areas of national security and international relations. The depth of his control means that even significant events, such as the recent death of Iran’s president, are unlikely to lead to any immediate changes in Iran’s ruling system or to its overarching policies, which are decidedly by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: A Brief Profile

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's tenure as Supreme Leader has been marked by continuity and a firm adherence to the principles of the Islamic Revolution. Born in Mashhad, Iran, in 1939, he rose through the ranks as a close confidante of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Following Khomeini's death in 1989, Khamenei was chosen as his successor, a testament to his revolutionary credentials and his perceived loyalty to the system. His long reign, now spanning over three decades, has seen Iran navigate complex geopolitical challenges, including nuclear negotiations, regional conflicts, and internal dissent. His age and health have become subjects of intense speculation among Iran watchers, given the immense power concentrated in his hands and the implications for future leadership.

The President: A Limited Role

While the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority, Iran does have an elected president, who serves as the second highest-ranking official. This creates a unique dynamic where an elected official holds a high public profile, yet his power is significantly trimmed back by the constitution. The president's role is primarily administrative and managerial. He manages economic and domestic policy and oversees the ministries and bureaucracy. However, the critical distinction lies in the fact that the entire executive branch is subordinated to the Supreme Leader.

This structural limitation means that the president, despite being directly elected by the people, does not control the armed forces – a power explicitly reserved for the Supreme Leader. In fact, Iran is arguably the only state in which the executive branch does not control the armed forces. This fundamental separation of powers, where the ultimate levers of national security and foreign policy are outside the president's purview, underscores the true nature of who is in control of Iran.

The recent political events in Iran highlight this reality. Iranians went to the polls to elect a new president following the death in May of the former incumbent, Ebrahim Raisi. Yet, as many analysts noted, the death of Iran’s president was unlikely to lead to any immediate changes in Iran’s ruling system or to its overarching policies. These policies, as established, are decided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reinforcing the idea that the presidency, while important for day-to-day governance, is not the ultimate seat of power.

Masoud Pezeshkian: The Current Occupant and His Mandate

Iran’s current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, took office in July 2024. His election came at a critical juncture for Iran, following the sudden death of his predecessor. As president, Pezeshkian is tasked with navigating Iran's economic challenges, managing its domestic affairs, and representing the country on the international stage. However, his mandate, like those of his predecessors, operates within the strict confines of the theocratic system. His ability to enact significant reforms or shift fundamental national policies is inherently limited by the Supreme Leader's ultimate authority. While he may bring a different style or focus to the presidency, the core power structure, and thus the answer to who is truly in control of Iran, remains unchanged.

The Islamic Revolution and Its Legacy

To fully grasp the current power dynamics, one must understand the foundational event that reshaped Iran: the Islamic Revolution of 1979. This pivotal moment saw the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty, which had ruled Iran from 1925, and the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The revolution was not merely a change in government but a fundamental shift in ideology, transforming Iran into a theocratic republic where religious principles guide governance. This transformation embedded the concept of the Supreme Leader as the ultimate arbiter, ensuring that the revolution's ideals would be preserved and upheld. Since its inception, this system has been a constant thorn for the countries it marked out as enemies, Israel most of all, defining much of Iran's foreign policy and its internal security apparatus.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): A Parallel Power Structure

A crucial element in understanding who is in control of Iran is the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Established shortly after the 1979 revolution, the IRGC was created to defend Iran’s Islamic system and its revolutionary ideals, acting as a counterweight to the traditional military. Unlike a conventional army, the IRGC is deeply ideological and directly loyal to the Supreme Leader. It operates as a powerful parallel institution, with its own ground, naval, and air forces, intelligence apparatus, and vast economic interests. This distinct entity sits apart from the rest of the military, giving the Supreme Leader a direct and loyal force that can bypass the traditional state bureaucracy if necessary.

The IRGC's influence extends far beyond military matters. It plays a significant role in Iran's economy, politics, and even cultural affairs, often acting as a gatekeeper for the revolution's principles. Its involvement in foreign policy is also undeniable. For instance, when Iran launched missiles at Israel on April 13, it was the Guards, rather than the foreign ministry, which summoned the Swiss ambassador to convey a message to the US, signalling Iran’s direct and assertive approach to regional conflicts. This incident clearly illustrates the IRGC's operational independence and its direct line to the Supreme Leader, further solidifying the Supreme Leader's control over critical state functions.

The IRGC's Influence on Regional Dynamics

The IRGC is not just an internal force; its reach extends across the Middle East, where it supports various proxy groups and allies, projecting Iran's power and influence. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Houthi rebels in Yemen and various militias in Iraq and Syria, the IRGC's Quds Force (its expeditionary arm) has been instrumental in shaping regional conflicts and challenging the interests of Iran's adversaries. This external projection of power is a direct reflection of the Supreme Leader's foreign policy objectives and further cements the IRGC's role as a critical instrument in Iran's overall strategy. The direct command structure from the Supreme Leader to the IRGC ensures that these regional activities align precisely with the overarching vision of who is in control of Iran.

Foreign Policy and Military Control: A Supreme Leader's Domain

As highlighted, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holds ultimate control over Iran's foreign and military policy. This means that major strategic decisions regarding international relations, defense, and security are not made by the president or the foreign ministry, but by the Supreme Leader and the bodies directly accountable to him, primarily the IRGC. This centralized control ensures a consistent and unified approach to national security, even if it bypasses traditional diplomatic channels. The example of the IRGC summoning the Swiss ambassador after the missile launch on Israel on April 13, 2024, vividly illustrates this point. It was a direct communication channel, bypassing the foreign ministry, signaling Iran’s message to the US, and demonstrating who holds the real power in such critical moments.

This firm grip on foreign and military affairs is a cornerstone of the Supreme Leader's authority and crucial for understanding who is in control of Iran. It allows for swift, decisive action in line with the revolutionary ideals, unhindered by the bureaucratic processes that might otherwise slow down decision-making. The World Health Organization's "Islamic Republic of Iran Country Overview" might detail public health policy, but the strategic direction of the nation, especially concerning its external posture, firmly rests with the Supreme Leader.

The Pahlavi Dynasty and Exiled Opposition

While the current system is firmly in place, there are voices from the past and present that challenge the existing control. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and son of the last Persian Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, represents a historical alternative to the current regime. He often uses social media, penning his posts in English and Farsi, to direct messages to the Iranian people and the international community. On occasion, he has urged Iranians to prepare for the impending fall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic, signaling a desire to shift who is in control of Iran. His calls resonate with a segment of the Iranian diaspora and some within Iran who yearn for a return to a secular, monarchical system.

Other opposition groups also exist in exile, though their current influence on the ground within Iran appears limited. For instance, Massoud Rajavi, a former leader of an opposition group, remains in exile and has not been seen for more than 20 years. His wife, Maryam Rajavi, is now in control of the group, but it has shown little evidence of significant activity inside Iran that would genuinely challenge the current power structure. These exiled voices, while important for historical context and future aspirations, do not currently hold any sway over who is in control of Iran today.

The Theocratic Republic: A Unique Governance Model

Iran's designation as a "theocratic republic" is key to understanding its unique power structure. This model blends elements of popular sovereignty (through elections for the president and parliament) with an overarching religious authority. Iran’s constitution designates the office of the Supreme Leader as head of state and affords it vast control under the theory that political authority springs from religious authority. This means that all laws, policies, and governmental decisions must ultimately align with Islamic principles as interpreted by the Supreme Leader and the clerical establishment. This framework ensures that even democratically elected officials operate within a system where religious scholars hold the ultimate veto power, reinforcing the Supreme Leader's position as the ultimate authority figure and the one truly in control of Iran.

This dual system creates inherent tensions. While the president is elected and accountable to the people for domestic and economic policy, the Supreme Leader and institutions under his direct control, like the IRGC, can override or influence these policies. This dynamic is a constant feature of Iranian politics, where the aspirations of the populace, expressed through elections, must ultimately conform to the ideological vision of the Supreme Leader. This fundamental principle is what makes Iran's governance model so distinct and explains why the question of who is in control of Iran is not simply answered by pointing to the presidential palace.

The Constitutional Framework: Limiting Presidential Power

The Iranian constitution is meticulously designed to ensure the supremacy of the Supreme Leader. It explicitly outlines the powers of the Supreme Leader, including the appointment of the head of the judiciary, the commanders of the armed forces, and the directors of state radio and television. It also grants him the power to dismiss the president if he is deemed to have deviated from his duties. Conversely, the constitution carefully delineates the president's responsibilities, primarily focusing on executive functions, but always under the watchful eye and ultimate authority of the Supreme Leader. This constitutional subordination ensures that while the president has a high public profile, his power is in many ways trimmed back by the constitution, which subordinates the entire executive branch to the Supreme Leader. This legal framework is the bedrock upon which the Supreme Leader's absolute control is built.

The Future of Control: Succession and Potential Shifts

The question of who is in control of Iran inevitably leads to discussions about the future, particularly given the Supreme Leader's advanced age. Iran watchers closely monitor any signs of succession planning or internal power struggles. While the death of President Raisi did not immediately alter the ruling system, it did highlight the fragility of individual positions within the hierarchy compared to the stability of the Supreme Leader's office. Some Iran watchers say a more plausible outcome would be for elements within the regime to seek to wrest control from Iran's ageing Supreme Leader, perhaps during a succession crisis. This suggests that while the system is designed for continuity, internal dynamics and ambitions could potentially lead to shifts in power, even if the fundamental structure of theocratic rule remains.

The external perception of Iran's control also varies. For example, in a post on Truth Social, former President Donald Trump once claimed, "we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it." This statement, while perhaps an oversimplification, touches upon the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the constant scrutiny of Iran's military capabilities and its ability to assert its sovereignty. The reported Israeli strike on a building used by Islamic Republic of Iran News Network, part of Iran's state TV broadcaster, on June 16, 2025, in Tehran, Iran, further underscores the volatile regional environment and the constant challenges to Iran's perceived control, both internally and externally. However, regardless of external pressures or internal succession debates, the current reality remains that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the person who ultimately decides the direction of the nation, firmly establishing who is in control of Iran.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the question of "who is in control of Iran?" cannot be answered by simply pointing to its elected president. While the president manages significant domestic and economic affairs and holds a high public profile, his power is inherently limited by the country's unique theocratic constitution. The undeniable authority rests with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate control over the armed forces, foreign policy, and the appointment of key officials, including the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps. This intricate system, born from the 1979 Islamic Revolution, ensures that religious authority supersedes all other forms of governance, creating a state where the overarching policies and strategic direction are dictated from the very top.

Understanding Iran's governance means recognizing this layered structure, where the Supreme Leader acts as the ultimate arbiter, ensuring the continuity of the Islamic Republic's foundational principles. As Iran continues to navigate complex domestic challenges and regional tensions, the Supreme Leader's role remains central to its identity and its actions on the world stage. We hope this deep dive has provided valuable insights into the true power dynamics at play. What are your thoughts on Iran's unique political system? Share your perspectives in the comments below, or explore more of our articles on global political landscapes.

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